El Nino's Impact: Warmer, Drier Singapore, and the Looming Haze Risk
El Nino is back, and it's bringing a scorcher of a summer to Singapore. The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has issued a warning, predicting warmer and drier weather in the second half of the year, with a heightened risk of transboundary haze. This is a cause for concern, as the region braces for the potential consequences of this naturally occurring climate phenomenon.
A Familiar Foe
El Nino, a regular visitor every three to five years, is marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It's a disruptive force, often bringing hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia. The last El Nino event occurred between 2023 and early 2024, and now, it's making a comeback. This time, it's expected to influence Singapore's weather from June to October, with a particular focus on the southwest monsoon season from June to September.
Historical Precedent
The MSS highlights a historical precedent. During the last strong El Nino in 2015, Singapore's total rainfall between June and September was a staggering 35% below the long-term average. This dry spell is a stark reminder of the potential impact of El Nino on the region's weather patterns.
Rising Temperatures
El Nino isn't just about dry conditions; it's also associated with higher temperatures. In 2016, when the previous El Nino event weakened, average temperatures from March to May reached a scorching 29.2°C, 1°C above the long-term average. This heatwave-like scenario is a concern, especially as the upcoming El Nino is expected to start at a moderate strength, potentially intensifying towards the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole Factor
Adding to the mix is the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This phenomenon, similar to El Nino but occurring in the equatorial Indian Ocean, is predicted to develop between July and August. The MSS explains that Singapore and its surroundings tend to experience drier conditions due to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to less cloud formation. This combination of El Nino and a positive IOD could intensify and prolong the dry season, potentially extending it into October.
Haze and Health Concerns
The implications of these dry and warm conditions are twofold. Firstly, they increase the likelihood of peatland and vegetation fires in the region. If these fires occur near Singapore and the prevailing winds carry the smoke, transboundary haze could affect air quality, leading to poor visibility and potential health issues. The MSS warns that the hotspot and smoke haze situation in the surrounding region could escalate from June.
Secondly, the authorities are taking proactive measures. The Haze Task Force, chaired by the National Environment Agency (NEA), has 28 government agencies prepared to activate response plans if air quality deteriorates. Members of the public are advised to monitor real-time air quality through 1-hour PM2.5 readings and refer to the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) for health advisories. They are also encouraged to ensure their air purifiers are in working condition and follow official advisories via the NEA's website, the myENV app, and social media channels.
A Call to Action
As El Nino looms, Singapore and its neighbors must prepare for a potentially challenging period. The dry and warm conditions, coupled with the risk of haze, require a coordinated response. The MSS's predictions serve as a reminder of the importance of climate monitoring and preparedness. It's a call to action for governments, businesses, and individuals to work together to mitigate the impacts of El Nino and ensure the well-being of the region's residents.
